- We have calculated the sample standard deviation s in
order to get a measure of the uncertainty of the individual
measurement values. If you round the value of 0.018 m to 0.02 m, you
get a result that can easily be obtained by "eye-balling" the five
measurement values in the table above. Thus, what we have done may
seem like cracking a walnut with a sledge hammer. And you would be
right in feeling this way. If only a few data points are given, there
is little to be gained by working out the SD. A quick estimate will
usually be a good enough value of the uncertainty. However, if a
much larger number of measurement values is available, the SD will
give a better measure of the uncertainty. The purpose of the
calculation done here was mainly to illustrate the procedure.
Whether, in a case like this, you obtain an uncertainty of 0.02 m
by "eye-balling" or an uncertainty of 0.018 m by calculating the
standard deviation, in both cases the uncertainty would be denoted
DL, if the quantity to be measured
is denoted by the symbol L. Thus, you need to make it clear
in the context what DL denotes,
i.e., how DL was determined.
Compare the section "Notation" on Page 1 of this session.
- An uncertainty of 0.02 m for the individual measurement values
with a sample mean of 1.18 m amounts to a relative uncertainty of
about 2%. A 2%-uncertainty means that the measurement values are
reasonably precise, but not very precise. There are
measurements that are much more precise than that. E.g., physicists
think that they have measured the mass of the electron to eight
significant digits.
- Insofar as the measurement values are reasonably precise, they
are also reasonably accurate. However, accuracy requires more than a
small scatter of individual measurement values. It also requires
that the mean is close to the true value.
Suppose the tape measure that was used to measure the lengths in
the tabulation above had the first 10 cm missing, without this being
noticed. This would make all measured values and their mean 10 cm
too large. This kind of an error is called a systematic
error. If a sizeable systematic error is present, the
measurements would be correspondingly inaccurate even though fairly
precise.
- The sample mean m is the best estimate of the true value,
if no systematic errors are present. If a systematic error is
present, m may be substantially off the true value and it may
be possible to get a better estimate of the true value by trying to
correct for the systematic error if one has some information about
it.
- Suppose you take another set of five measurements of the length
and yet another set, etc. Each time the sample mean will be a little
bit different, but it will not scatter as widely as the individual
measurement results. If the individual measurement values are
normally distributed, one can prove that the sample mean m too
is normally distributed, with a standard deviation that is smaller
than the SD of the individual measurement values by the factor of
n.
In the example above, the SD of the sample mean,
smean, would be equal to s /n = 0.018 /5 = 0.008 m.
smean = 0.008 m .
If there is no systematic error present, the five measurement
values thus provide the following final result for the length:
1.184 m ± 0.008 m
where the true mean has a
roughly 68% chance of being in the indicated range.
In quoting an uncertainty, make sure you indicate what the
uncertainty means, whether it is the uncertainty in the individual
measurement values or in the mean of these values. There is no
generally accepted convention that dictates which uncertainty to use
so that the reader of your publication needs to be informed.
- The estimate s of the SD of the individual measurement
values does not change with the sample size n, apart from the
fluctuations to be expected with any change in the sample. However,
the estimate smean = s /n of the SD of the sample mean decreases as the
sample size n increases and would eventually approach zero as
n approaches infinity.
Can one make a measurement result arbitrarily accurate by going to
larger and larger samples, at least in principle? Of course, there
are practical limits to how often one can repeat a measurement.
No, one cannot. E.g., one cannot go significantly farther in
reducing the uncertainty than we have done here, simply by measuring
more often. The final result quoted above already goes one decimal
beyond the precision with which the individual measurement values are
quoted. Going two decimals beyond this precision by increasing
n would give a misleading impression of the accuracy of the
result. The reason is that there is no assurance that there will not
be a systematic error of the order of at least a few tenths of a
centimeter inherent in the measuring procedure if the procedure can
provide length values only to within 1 cm.